Labour now pose the real threat to May’s position

So Theresa May wants to fight the next election as leader. She would say that wouldn’t she; but her desire to get the job done and atone for past mistakes should not be underestimated. She is hardly challenged at Cabinet level (sorry Boris) and it would allow time for a new leader to emerge from the next generation. But the real threat to her position comes not from grumbling colleagues but Labour’s new stance on Europe.

The Government to date has been blessed with its Opposition, despite the disastrous General Election result. A slow footed, divided Labour Party has allowed the Conservative Party to avoid most of the pitfalls of its own internal divisions. A poor Labour front bench, led by a leader who can’t make up his mind on the key issue of the day, leaving Europe, has also allowed a hard Brexit approach to remain relatively unchallenged. The real opposition often seems to be led by Michel Barnier, who again out-manoeuvred David Davis this week from a public relations perspective.

Not for much longer. The change of stance of the Labour Party, driven by one of its few able shadow ministers, Keir Starmer, to supporting a much softer Brexit has enormous consequences. In flatly opposing the Conservatives’ desire to leave the single market/customs union during a transition period, beyond it and possibly never if freedom of movement rules are loosened, Labour have now created more space for potentially major parliamentary defeats. Many Labour seats voted to leave the EU so there may be some negative consequences for them but on the whole this has been a long overdue master stroke.

The Conservatives also seem to be softening their own position. A ‘status quo’ transition, paying exit bills, a limited role for the European Court of Justice are just a few compromises appearing. As long as the hard Brexiteers get their exit and the EU has a transition period where we abide by their rules (but have no say!) perhaps all will be harmony. But if not, there will be real trouble. If the Government loses its majority through a combination of Labour’s new stance and pro-European Conservatives simply having had enough then it will be game over. Theresa May would have to go and with a new leader pressurised to call an election who knows what the consequences will be. There will be many close battles ahead and 2019 looks a long way off let alone 2022.