A collective sigh of relief could be heard across Europe as Macron’s clear victory was announced. With Angela Merkel quietly accumulating regional victories in Saarland and now Schleswig-Holstein she should be a shoe-in in Germany in September and with Renzi’s comeback in Italy it is quite like old times…well no. Marine Le Pen doubled her father’s 2002 vote and will focus on 2022 whilst Britain is leaving Europe. The Five Star Movement in Italy is strong and populism remains a powerful force. If Europe falls back into complacency, it will only have itself to blame if its future deteriorates further. President Macron is simply a breathing space.
For the UK, it is said Europe wants a strong Theresa May to negotiate with and so should we want a strong Europe. A new French President with real influence and a clear commitment to raising Europe’s game is in Britain’s interest. With a clarity of purpose and sharp red lines on both sides, Brexit negotiations may not take less time but they will be cleaner and this is what Macron’s victory brings.
It was pointed out to me by a senior Conservative source that there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit – it is a pointless distinction. There can be no compromise on freedom of movement from both sides so we are leaving the single market full stop. If the Conservatives are returned with a large majority, however, the Prime Minister will have much more room for manoeuvre on the length of transition and exit bills to be paid aided with some irony by a rejuvenated French, German axis. These diminished ambitions is what a soft Brexit now means
Inside Right Politics 